Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
